hatmakesyourstockpricegoupanddown（英文版）.docx

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1、hatmakesyourstockpricegoupanddown (英文版)KEVIN P. COYNE AND JONATHAN W. WITTERThe McKinsey Quarterly, 2002 Number 2When the Bass family of Texas, in response to a margin call, sold its stake in Disney, tat company,s stock actually fell by 8 percentCEOs always want to know how the market will react to

2、new strategies and other major decisions. Will a company,s shareholders agree with a particular move, or will they fail to understand the motives behind it and punish the stock accordingly? And what can management do to improve the outcome?Trying to predict stock price movements is necessary, of cou

3、rse. After all, when stock prices fall, the cost of borrowing and of issuing new equity can rise, and falling stock prices can both undercut the confidence of employees and customers and handicap mergers. Unfortunately, however, most of these predictions are no more than rough guesses, because the t

4、ools CEOs use to make them are not very accurate. Net present value (NPV) may be useful for estimating the long-term intrinsic value of shares, but it is famously unreliable for predicting their price over the next few quarters. Conversations with sample groups of investors and analysts, conducted b

5、y the company or by investment bankers, are no more reliable for gauging market reactions.But executives can dramatically improve the accuracy of their predictions. By adopting a more systematic, rigorous approach, corporate leaders can learn to understand individual investors as thoroughly as many

6、companies now understand each of their top commercial customers. It is possible to know such customers well because there are only so many of them. Equally, only a finite number of investors really matter when it comes to predicting stock price movements.Armed with these new and solid insights about

7、 how critical investors behave in specific situations, executives can make strategic decisions in a different light. Knowing what makes crucial investors buy, sell, or hold the company,s stock allows CEOs to calculate what its share price might be after an announcement and to factor this calculation

8、 into their strategic and operating decisions. To head off short-term selling, a company could manage the timing, pace, or sequencing of strategic announcements. It could introduce a new management team before announcing an acquisition. It could also test an important new product in selected markets

9、 before the nationwide rollout. How will investors react to a merger announcement and what will the resulting share price mean for a deal? How might a spin-off fare in the market? Does the company need to prepare the market or to consider a carve-out instead?A CEO even has the choice of forging ahea

10、d in the face of adverse predictions, using the information to manage the expectations of the board. An executive may, for instance, consider bold strategies even though they could push some critical investors to sell the company,s stock.THE FEW THAT MATTERIt should come as no surprise that big trad

11、es can significantly move the needle on a company,s stock price. When the Bass family of Texas, for example, sold its stake in Disney, in September 2001, in response to a margin call, Disney,s stock fell by 8 percent.But typically, short-term changes in a company,s stock price arent the result of a

12、single big trade. For the 50 companies whose quarterly stock price variations we studied, we consistently found that the majority of unique changes in each company,s stock price resulted from the net purchases and sales of the stock by a limited number of investors who traded in large quantities. (B

13、y unique changes, we mean those occurring relative to the rest of the market. In other words, they do not include price bumps or falls that coincided with the overall movements of the market or the sector.)Although the number of crucial investors in a company ranged from as few as 30 to (moretypical

14、ly) as many as 100, in each case this set of actors had a dramatic impact on share prices. In the companies we studied, we could attribute from 60 to 80 percent of all unique changes, quarter by quarter, to the net trading imbalances of these investors.EXHIBIT 1A few large investors drive stock pric

15、esAnalysis of weekly trading volume of large European industrial mpany (disguised)15105 0-5-10-15-20-150 -100 - 50050 100 150 200 250 300Weekly trading imbalance among100 most critical investors, percentr2 = the proportion or Percentageofvariance explaned by a regression1Points represent every week

16、during 2-year period in which stock price changed 2% relative to market index and change wasnt reversed during the following week.?Calculated as net purcases net shares repaid - sales - net shares borrowedSource: Interviews McKinsey analysisWhy should the size of the imbalance between asks and bids matter? At any instant, the market consists of a series of graduated offers to buy (in other words, A has an outstanding